It's been a bumpy ride for interest rates recently, and while this week was no exception, the pace subsided slightly. Nonetheless, rates moved higher with Wednesday seeing the highest average 30yr fixed rates since November 1, 2023. On the bright side, that's a lot better than the story in 10yr Treasury yields, which hit their highest level since 2002. 

At 9:44am ET on Wednesday, this week's rate story was mostly about waiting for next week's economic data. At 9:45, an unlikely report made the wait a lot more uncomfortable.

It's a common refrain in this newsletter: The Fed does not hike/cut mortgage rates and the two can often move in opposite directions in the short-term.

Mortgage rates moved sharply higher this week, ultimately reaching their highest levels since early 2025. Most of the damage took place on Wednesday and Thursday, but Friday ultimately made things slightly worse. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose almost a quarter of a percent in total. 

Mortgage rates hit their highest level since June 2025 this week. While that milestone sounds ominous, it was the product of gradual movement and logical motivations.

Mortgage rates were on track for a fairly uneventful week until Friday morning, when a speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh triggered a sharp bond market sell-off. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate jumped to its highest level in just over 3 weeks.

Mortgage rates ended the week moderately higher, but things could have been slightly worse without Wednesday's surprisingly sharp drop in longer-term Treasury yields (a key benchmark for mortgage rates). The cause was an announcement about Treasury's bond buyback program--a subject that made far more noise than its lasting impact warranted.

Rates may still be elevated in a general sense, but by the end of the week, they were as low as they've been since July 17th. If we have one thing to thank, it was this week's inflation data.

Mortgage rates moved lower almost every day this week with most of the help coming from war-related headlines and a last-minute boost from the jobs report.

If there's one thing to know about this week's rate movement it's that it left us almost exactly where we were last Friday. How we got there felt a bit more dramatic at times.

While the milestones may be significant, the underlying reasons for them remain simple. 

Let's start with the milestones, even though they're not the fun kind. On Thursday, average 30yr fixed mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over a year. The average lender jumped over 6.8% after being closer to 6.5% at the end of June.

It was an eventful week for mortgage rates and the bond market, but ultimately a decent one. Monday's rates matched the highest levels in nearly a year, but by Friday, we were actually just a hair lower versus last Friday. Here's how we got there.

It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic reports that caused rate volatility. Thankfully, it was mostly the good kind.

As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected.

The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has everyone singing a different tune. This week's data was more of an afterthought compared to last week's.